Tuesday, January 22, 2008

Stock Market horror

What a mess. The German Stockmarket is down a full 6% at this moment. The UK market, the "footsie" is down over 3% and I won't be surprised if it closes at minus 5%.

I've been warning about this for sometime. But that crazy massive rise in August to November - made me look worse than a total moron, a right ding dong.

Just learnt that someone, whom I was (trying to) help, threw in her entire life savings into the market in November- having made a huge bundle in the October rally on her own initiative. She got furious at me when I warned her back then. I told her, repeatedly, after she made a huge fortune enough to buy a big house, to give it a rest and end the year on a high note. "Take a six month holiday", I said. "Put the money in the bank".

But no, she didn't want to listen to me anymore- and instead sunk everything she had into the market. Now all her gains made in 2007 has just been totally wiped out. She's got to suck eggs now.

Oh well... she never listens to me. Its as if she wants to prove me wrong. Everytime we have an argument, she turns it into a personal quarrel. Why do I even bother?

Anyways, looks like this is the start of a bear market. Meaning, stocks will go down rather than up. And it will probably stay that way for a good quarter. If its really bad, then we are going to see a repeat of the yucky period from 2000 - 2003. Plenty of volatility - but basically on average - everything trends downwards and downwards.

Next stop for the STi ? Probably heading towards 2600 - and then it better bottom out.

And for the more important issue... the Dow. Well, it'll probably head towards 10,000 before consolidating. And if things are fubar - then a slow slide toward 8000. Hopefully the carnage will stop sometimes then. Perhaps we are seeing one of the turning points in history, when America's dominance fades away.

Personally I hope this shock will wake up the Yanks from their idiotic decadence and force them to start doing some serious deep thinking. By decadence, I mean - a dismal education system, a culture that glorifies consumsion, base individualism, a bloated bureaucracy, inept politicians, partisan media, and an economy that's actually dependent upon consumer power.

I think it's exemplified by the media cult glorifying the rich and stupid - ie Paris Hilton - where she has whole legion trying to emulate her "style".

The other sign is the SUV (and hoon car) craze in the States (as well as here). I don't understand why we allow these "gas guzzling dinosaurs" to be roaming on our streets. Haven't we learnt anything from the 1970s oil crisis? That should have been warning enough.

In the 1940s and 1950s, people just wanted to work hard, build a family and home. Now people want to get laid and have their photos on TV.

Weekly Chart of the Dow Jones Industrial

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